Planning for the Future
- Rebecca Murray-Watson
- Dec 4, 2019
- 2 min read
Updated: Dec 7, 2019
Epidemics are not new threats to humanity. However, due to increasing trade and travel, disease vectors can move further and faster than ever before. Huge efforts have been made at a local, national and international level to create monitoring networks so that if an outbreak does occur, health officials can rapidly respond. The International Health Regulations (IHR), introduced in 2005, established a framework for the 193 countries involved to create a global monitoring network for a wide variety of threats to public health. International collaborations such as the IHR are invaluable in limiting the spread of deadly diseases.
As climate change introduces new risks, even well-established networks and healthcare systems will have to adapt. Creating effective and efficient mitigation strategies requires interdisciplinary teams of public health officials, policymakers and epidemiologists. Such mitigation strategies often focus on strengthening healthcare systems or creating more robust early warning systems, which enable the dissemination of potentially life-saving information. Developments in data science mean that a global system could be within reach. Modelling often plays a key role in informing decision-makers about areas which may require particular attention in a world with a rapidly changing climate. In the video below, Dr Rachel Lowe, who I mentioned back in my second post, describes how early warning systems driven by climate forecasting can assist researchers in predicting areas at risk of dengue outbreaks.
Video taken from the International Society for Neglected Tropical Diseases's YouTube channel.
Similar mitigation strategies are being developed for plants, too. As discussed before on this blog, climate change could expose plants to new disease threats, posing a risk to food security. Simple techniques such as increased use of pesticides and fungicides may not work, because climate change could reduce their effectiveness. While some have suggested the development of new chemicals which can be used at higher temperatures, many scientists have cited the potential of genetically modified (GM) crops. Drought- and disease-resistant GM crops could alleviate the burden of climate change, especially in developing countries. However, despite scientists' repeated assurances of their safety, public opinion in large markets, such as Europe and China, are still against such technologies. This may change in the coming decades, as the world develops a greater need for climate-robust crops.
A rice field in Thailand destroyed by drought. Genetic modification could potentially make crops more robust to extreme weather events, including droughts.
These initiatives can only do so much to protect us from the harmful effects of climate change. In many papers discussing the risks of increased disease incidence and spread, scientists have urged governments and international bodies to take action and reduce their carbon emissions. If emissions are curbed, some of the worst outcomes of climate change may not be realised. As the 25th Conference of the Parties starts in Madrid this week, we can only hope that meaningful steps are made towards a less dangerous future.
Louisa-I was fascinated by the global dengue early warning system, it seems like these initiatives have enormous potential to support those on the ground dealing with these issues (such as your incredible previous work!). Progress has been made for other diseases, too (here's an overview of the situation for malaria: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5861466/). Hopefully we can see these systems making a real difference soon.
clontarfmurrays-I agree, initiatives such as the Green Climate Fund (mentioned last week), although weighed down with problems, are promising signs that those in power finally acknowledge the level of global cooperation needed to address these problems. Listening to indigenous people is also a refreshing change (here's an article about Greta Thunberg once again leading the charge in this respect: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/environment/thunberg-takes-climate-stance-in-solidarity-with-young-indigenous-people-1.4109847).
I like your closing sentiment; although the pace of progress may be frustrating, hopefully it's in the right direction.
Really interesting to hear Rachel Lowe on the possibility of a global dengue early warning system. Way back I was briefly involved in a project in Vietnam and Indonesia that focused on community-level early action to prevent dengue, using Red Cross volunteers to raise public awareness of dengue symptoms and prevention measures ahead of the rainy season, while also identifying potential dengue cases to catch outbreaks earlier (there's more info in a brochure here (PDF!): https://www.climatecentre.org/downloads/files/Case%20studies/CC_HMR%20brochure_A4_6%20web.pdf ). The activities were based just on the seasonal forecast, but a proper early warning system would be fantastic, and allow for much more effective use of resources at community level.
Its good to hear that data science and modelling......and presumably a full range of available technologies…. are being employed to monitor and prepare for the big CC. Although the Madrid Conference is struggling with the perennial financial issues involved, it's nice to note that they are giving attention to poorer countries with rising sea-levels and also acknowledging the role and knowledge of indigenous peoples. It's getting a bit scary that the overall message on CC seems to be heading more towards hope than confidence and the value of blogs like this to keep the issue in the public eye must not be underestimated: actions may speak louder than words but in this case, the words must come first.